安徽农业科学

[目的]为减少区域气候变化和恶劣气象灾害对烟叶种植造成的影响，分析常德烟区植烟气候条件，研究当地烟叶气象灾害风险。[方法]基于常德烟区国家站1991—2020年气候资料和近10年部分区域站观测数据，选取烟叶大田期降水量、平均气温、日照时数并与植烟适宜性气候指标进行多重对比，归纳出常德烟区烟叶气象服务指标；根据烟区灾害性天气出现日数、历史灾情、专家评分赋权等数据，构建烟叶气象灾害风险评估函数，分析高影响气象灾害的发生发展规律及致灾风险，获取关键致灾阈值。[结果]常德烟区植烟气候特点为降水前后期偏多、中期适宜，气温前低后高，日照充足，石门高海拔烟区植烟气候适宜性最好；各烟区气象灾害风险由高到低分别为桃源、临澧、石门，石门烟区综合气象灾害风险最低。[结论]研究结果可为常德烟区植烟区划、精细化气象服务、防灾减灾提供科学依据和技术支撑，助力烟区烟叶种植提质增效。

[Objective]To reduce the impact of regional climate change and severe meteorological disasters on tobacco leaf cultivation, analyze the tobacco-growing climate conditions in Changde tobacco-growing area and study the local meteorological disaster risks of tobacco leaves. [Method]Based on the climate data of the national station in the Changde tobacco-growing area from 1991 to 2020 and the observation data of some regional stations in the past 10 years, the precipitation, average temperature and sunshine duration during the field period of tobacco leaves were selected and compared multiple times with the climate indicators suitable for tobacco planting. The meteorological service indicators for tobacco leaves in the Changde tobacco-growing area were summarized. Based on data such as the number of days of disastrous weather in tobacco growing areas, historical disaster situations, and expert score weighting, a tobacco meteorological disaster risk assessment function is constructed to analyze the occurrence and development patterns of high impact meteorological disasters and their disaster risks, and to obtain key disaster thresholds. [Result]The results show that the climate characteristics for tobacco planting in the Changde tobacco-growing area are as follows: there is more precipitation in the early and late stages and it is suitable in the middle stage. The temperature is low in the early stage and high in the later stage. There is sufficient sunshine. The climate suitability for tobacco planting in the high-altitude tobacco-growing area of Shimen is the best. The meteorological disaster risks in each tobacco area, from high to low, are Taoyuan, Linli and Shimen. The comprehensive meteorological disaster risk in the Shimen tobacco area is the lowest. [Conclusion]The study can provide scientific basis and technical support for tobacco planting zoning, refined meteorological services, disaster prevention and reduction in the tobacco-growing areas of Changde, and better guarantee the improvement of tobacco planting quality and efficiency in the tobacco growing areas.