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烟粉虱(Bemisia tabaci)是一个由多个遗传分化的隐存种组成的物种复合体，作为全球性入侵害虫，其危害严重威胁农作物产量和经济收益。基于MaxEnt模型预测了当前气候条件下烟粉虱的全球潜在分布。模型评估显示，受试者工作特征曲线下面积(ROC-AUC)达0.915;重要性分析表明，最冷季度平均温度(BIO11)、等温性(BIO3)和最湿月降水量(BIO13)是主导环境因子。适生区预测结果显示，烟粉虱非适生区占全球陆地面积71.68%,适生区合计28.32%,其中低、中、高适生区分别占13.24%、10.75%、4.33%;高适生区集中于赤道附近的热带及亚热带区域。研究阐明了烟粉虱种群对气候变化的响应差异及其地理分布格局，在为防控烟粉虱危害提供依据的同时，也为其他入侵物种的管理建立了参考框架。
Abstract：Bemisia tabaci is a complex of several genetically distinct cryptic species, and as a globally invasive pest, its infestation poses a serious threat to crop yields and economic returns. In this study, we predicted the potential global distribution of Bemisia tabaci under current climatic conditions using the MaxEnt model. Model evaluation showed that the area under the curve(ROC-AUC) of the working characteristics of the subjects reached 0.915; significance analyses indicated that the mean temperature of coldest quarter(BIO11), isothermality(BIO3) and the precipitation of wettest month(BIO13) were the dominant environmental factors. The prediction of suitable areas showed that the non-suitable areas for Bemisia tabaci accounted for 71.68% of the global land area, and the suitable areas together accounted for 28.32%, of which the low, medium and highly suitable areas accounted for 13.24%, 10.75% and 4.33% respectively. The highly suitable areas were concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions near the equator. The present study has elucidated the differences in the response of Bemisia tabaci populations to climate change and their geographical distribution pattern, which provides a basis for the prevention and control of Bemisia tabaci damage, as well as a reference framework for the management of other invasive species.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:S433.3
引用信息:
[1]黄英凤,刘建宏.基于MaxEnt模型的烟粉虱(Bemisia tabaci)全球适生区预测[J].安徽农业科学,2026,54(08):192-198.
2026-04-28
2026-04-28